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Cerebras Fell 18% in a Week Before Its Report and Lockup
Cerebras shares fell about 18% in the week to November 6 with no company news, ahead of its November 12 results and the end of its main IPO lockup.
Cerebras Systems, the maker of wafer-scale AI chips that listed on Nasdaq in 2026, lost about 18% in the week to Friday, November 6, without any company-specific announcement, TIKR reported. The fall came as the Philadelphia semiconductor index dropped 12% on Thursday alone, but two events of its own are also close: third-quarter results after the close on Thursday, November 12, and the end of the main lockup that has kept early shareholders from selling since the IPO.
The company has set a high bar for the quarter. Cerebras guided third-quarter core revenue to about $214 million to $216 million, with a core gross margin of 38% to 40%, and full-year revenue of $880 million to $890 million. Consensus revenue for 2026 is about $890 million, rising to $2.96 billion in 2027 and $7.54 billion in 2028, according to TIKR, which put the stock at about 13 times expected sales for the next twelve months on Thursday, against an average of 36 times since listing and a peak of 63 times in June.
The lockup is unusual. Chief executive Andrew Feldman has said the company chose to "titrate out" the restrictions, releasing part of the shares on the first day of trading and more after each of the first two earnings reports, so the remaining 180-day lockup is the last and largest piece. Sources differ on the exact date, which falls in mid-November; a German report put the first new eligibility around November 9. More shares that can be sold, in a falling market, is a common source of pressure on recent listings.
A short seller adds a third factor. On October 28 Culper Research disclosed a short position and alleged that Cerebras's wafer chips last only about 1.5 to 2.5 years; at a 2.25-year depreciation life, Culper recalculated first-half gross margin at 24.0% against the 29.9% the company reported. Culper relies partly on unnamed former staff and customers, calls its conclusions opinions and profits if the shares fall, and Cerebras did not immediately comment in Benzinga's coverage. A day earlier, Oracle had agreed to offer Cerebras's inference service on its cloud.
Thursday's report gives the company a chance to answer on its own numbers. Gross margin and the depreciation policy behind it will matter more than revenue, and any comment on how much stock insiders plan to sell after the lockup will shape the following days. After a first report in June that sent the shares down about 20% on margin guidance, investors know how much one line can move this stock.
Sources: TIKR — Cerebras sinks 18% in a week, CoreWeave down 16% as AI stocks slide (Nov 2026); Let's Data Science — Short seller Culper Research alleges Cerebras wafer chips last only 1.5 to 2.5 years; Börse Express — Cerebras: Lockup-Ende um den 9. November; Invezz — Cerebras stock sell-off: CEO says margin forecast is 'misunderstood' (Jun 24, 2026)