AI in action · Markets
Nebius Beat Forecasts, Then Fell 16% on a $45B Capex Plan
Nebius shares fell 16% on November 12, 2026, after the AI cloud firm guided 2027 capital spending of $40–45 billion despite beating Q3 forecasts.
Nebius did almost everything investors asked of it on paper. The Amsterdam-based AI cloud company said on Thursday, November 12, that third-quarter revenue rose 571% to $980.8 million, against $907.5 million expected by analysts polled by LSEG, and that it made an adjusted profit of 31 cents a share where analysts had pencilled in a loss of 69 cents. Its shares still fell 16%, CNBC reported, one day after rising 15% in the rally that followed CoreWeave's results.
The problem was the bill. Nebius raised its 2026 capital spending forecast to $27 billion, from a range of $20 billion to $25 billion and above the $23.85 billion FactSet consensus, and said it expected to spend $40 billion to $45 billion in 2027, where analysts expected about $28.77 billion. Against that, it set a first 2027 revenue outlook of $12 billion to $13 billion, roughly in line with expectations, and said 2026 revenue would come in at the low end of its $3 billion to $3.4 billion range because third-party capacity deliveries are slipping into the first half of next year.
The quarter also flattered itself. About $325 million of revenue came from one-time partner payments, according to the earnings call transcript published by Investing.com, and operating cash flow was negative $273 million, because money owed by customers rose faster than their prepayments. Nebius raised $5.75 billion of debt in the quarter. Chief executive Arkady Volozh acknowledged that "capital markets have been unsettled lately," while insisting that building and financing capacity are problems that "can be solved."
This is the arithmetic every neocloud now faces. Each dollar of next year's revenue requires several dollars of data centres and chips today, financed by debt, customer prepayments or new shares. When markets are calm, investors look at the revenue line. After a month in which AI stocks fell sharply and the 10-year Treasury yield returned above 5%, they look at the funding line first.
The reaction is a reminder that a beat is not the same as good news. For a company spending ahead of demand, what matters is the ratio between what it will spend and what it expects to earn, and how it will pay. Nebius told investors that ratio is getting worse before it gets better, and a 16% drop is what that sounded like.
Sources: CNBC — Nebius Q3 earnings report 2026; Investing.com — Earnings call transcript: Nebius sinks premarket after Q3 2026; Blockspace — Nebius shares tumble as capacity delays hit revenue outlook