AI in action · Markets
Palantir Reports Tonight With an 11.65% Move Priced In
Options priced an 11.65% move either way for Palantir's third-quarter results, due after Monday's close. Analysts expect revenue up about 85% to $2.18 billion.
Palantir Technologies reports its third-quarter results after the US market closes on Monday, November 2, with a conference call at 5 p.m. Eastern time. On October 28 the options market was pricing a move of about 11.65% in either direction once the numbers are out, roughly $23.15 a share at the time, TipRanks calculated. That is in line with the stock's recent history: its last four post-earnings moves averaged about 12.81% in absolute terms, two up and two down, with the largest a 29.45% jump after the August report.
The numbers the market is waiting for are large. Analysts expect earnings of about $0.41 a share and revenue of about $2.18 billion, which would be growth of roughly 85% from a year earlier. In the second quarter revenue rose 93% to about $1.94 billion, and the company raised its full-year revenue guidance to between $7.650 billion and $7.662 billion, about 82% growth, and its US commercial revenue guidance to 134% growth, according to its filings with the SEC.
Why does a company growing that fast still carry so much risk into a report? Valuation. Previews published last week put the stock at around 87 times forward earnings after a climb of about 57% since the second-quarter report on August 3. At that multiple, a beat that only matches the whisper number can still send the shares lower, because much of the next few years' growth is already in the price. Of 24 analysts tracked by TipRanks, 18 rate the stock a buy, four a hold and two a sell; Rosenblatt's John McPeake said his customer checks point to "another beat and raise."
The timing adds pressure. Palantir reports into the worst stretch for AI-linked shares this year: the Nasdaq Composite had its worst month since March 2025 in October, and last week investors punished Alphabet, Meta and Amazon for spending more on AI than they expected. Palantir is on the other side of that trade, selling software that customers pay for rather than building data centres, which is why its guidance for the fourth quarter and for US commercial customers will be read as a test of whether AI spending is turning into revenue for the companies that sell applications.
For anyone holding or trading around the report, the implied move is a useful yardstick rather than a forecast. It is the size of move that options sellers are charging for; a bigger move means the results surprised more than they expected, a smaller one that they were paid for risk that did not arrive. Buying options right before earnings is expensive for exactly this reason, since the premium already prices the jump and usually deflates once the news is out.
Sources: TipRanks — Palantir Stock Could Swing 11.65% After Q3 Earnings on November 2, by Shalu Saraf (Oct 28, 2026); The Motley Fool — Should You Buy Palantir Stock Before Nov. 2? (Oct 30, 2026); SEC EDGAR — Palantir Technologies Form 8-K, Q2 2026 results press release