AI in action · Markets
Vistra Won Back 10% After the AI Power Sell-Off
Vistra rose 10.5% to $124.80 on Friday after third-quarter adjusted EBITDA jumped about 50% and it set 2027 targets, two days after a 13.8% fall on the midterms.
On Wednesday, November 4, Vistra fell 13.8% as investors sold the power producers that had become a way to bet on AI data centres, after the midterm elections raised doubts about how many will be built. On Friday, November 6, it reported results and recovered part of the damage: the shares rose 10.5% to $124.80, still about 11% below their close on November 3.
The quarter was strong by any measure. Adjusted EBITDA from ongoing operations rose to $2.378 billion from $1.581 billion a year earlier, an increase of more than 50%, and GAAP net income was $1.14 billion, including a $559 million unrealised gain on hedges, according to the company's SEC filing. Earnings per share of $3.01 beat the $2.71 consensus, although revenue fell short of forecasts, Yahoo Finance reported. Vistra narrowed its 2026 EBITDA range to $7.1 billion to $7.5 billion with a higher midpoint and set its first 2027 guidance at $7.7 billion to $8.5 billion.
The contracts explain why the forecast is less exposed to politics than the share price suggested. Vistra signed a 20-year, 207-megawatt power purchase agreement with New Era Energy and Digital at its Odessa gas plant in Texas, its 405-megawatt Pulaski solar farm in Illinois began supplying Microsoft, and it closed the purchase of Cogentrix Energy in October, adding about 5,500 megawatts of gas-fired generation. It has hedged about 100% of expected 2026 output, 98% of 2027 and 78% of 2028. The board added $1.5 billion to the buyback, bringing the remaining authorisation to about $2.5 billion.
"We continue to be well positioned for the growing demand ahead," chief executive Jim Burke said in the release. XTB described the jump as driven by strong demand for power from AI, which is the same theme that had sunk the stock two days earlier, read the other way.
The swing is a reminder of how a theme trade works. When Vistra was bought as an AI stock, it fell with AI sentiment on Wednesday regardless of its contracts. When it reported, the contracts mattered again. For investors in the AI power trade, hedging ratios and contract lengths say more about the next two years than election maps do.
Sources: Vistra Q3 2026 results, Form 8-K (SEC EDGAR); Yahoo Finance — Vistra Soars 8% on 50% EBITDA Jump and First 2027 Outlook; XTB — Vistra shares surge nearly 10% after earnings, driven by strong AI power demand