Markets · Medium impact

Brazil Presidential Runoff

Oct 25, 2026, Polls close 5:00 p.m. Brasília (4:00 p.m. ET)

Flávio Bolsonaro and President Lula meet in a second round after Bolsonaro led the October 4 first round. The Ibovespa rose 7.7% and the real about 4% on October 5, so the count on Sunday evening decides whether that trade is extended or unwound when the B3 opens on Monday.

Previous: First round (Oct 4): Bolsonaro 47.03%, Lula 45.16% of valid votes (TSE)

Expected: Final polls 51% to 49% for Bolsonaro among valid votes (Datafolha, Quaest), within the margin of error