Learning path

Reading the macro calendar

Inflation reports, Fed meetings, bond yields and earnings season: what moves the whole market and how to read each release.

Every month the same handful of releases move everything at once. This path explains each one with a recent report as the example, and how traders turn the numbers into rate expectations.

Best read a week before a CPI report or a Fed meeting. Finish with the Professional quiz.

1. Headline vs. Core Inflation: Why Markets Look Past Food and Energy — Every CPI report has two main numbers, and the market often cares more about the smaller one. Here is the difference between headline and core inflation, why the Fed watches core, and how to read a report on release day.

2. The Producer Price Index: What Wholesale Inflation Says Before It Reaches You — Published a day after CPI, the producer price index measures what businesses charge each other. Here is how to read it, why "core" PPI strips out trade margins, and what a 1.3% monthly jump in September 2026 did — and did not — mean.

3. Bond Yields and Stock Prices: How They're Connected, and Why the Link Sometimes Breaks — On October 5, 2026, the 10-year Treasury yield closed at its highest since 2002 and the Nasdaq closed at a record. Here's why rising yields usually weigh on stocks, and what it means when they don't.

4. How Markets Put a Number on the Next Fed Decision — "Markets see a 50% chance of a hike" is a calculation, not an opinion poll. Here's where those probabilities come from, how to work one out yourself, and why the change in the odds matters more than the level.

5. How Earnings Season Works, and Why a 'Beat' Can Still Send a Stock Lower — Four times a year, US companies report their quarterly results over a few busy weeks. Here's what's in an earnings report, how to read expectations, and why the market often reacts to guidance more than to the headline numbers.

6. Adjusted vs. Reported Earnings: Why One Company Can Post Two Different Profits — Bank of America earned 91 cents a share in the third quarter of 2026 — or $1.08, depending on which line you read. Here is the difference between reported and adjusted earnings, and how to tell which one the market is reacting to.

7. Net Interest Income: How Banks Earn Money From the Gap Between Two Rates — The biggest source of profit for most banks is simple: they pay less on deposits than they earn on loans. Here's how net interest income works, why interest rates move it, and why it dominates every bank earnings season.

8. Cyclical vs Defensive Stocks: Why Caterpillar and Eli Lilly Moved in Opposite Directions — Some companies' profits rise and fall with the economy; others keep selling about the same amount in good times and bad. Knowing which is which explains a lot of days when the index is flat but sectors aren't.

9. Market Breadth: Why "Bitcoin Was Flat" Can Hide a Big Day for Crypto — On September 24, Bitcoin closed up 0.01%, yet 54 of 57 large coins rose, with a median gain of 5.3%. What market breadth is, how to measure it, and what it adds to the headline number.

10. Credit Default Swaps: How the Market Prices the Odds a Company Can't Pay — When CoreWeave's stock bounced 6% in October 2026, its credit default swaps were pricing a 60% chance of default within five years. Here is what a CDS is, how to read its price, and why credit markets often see trouble before stock markets do.