Markets
Oil Steadies Near $98 as Rubio Says Iran Talks Stalled
Brent held near $98 a barrel early on November 9 after Secretary of State Marco Rubio said US-Iran talks had made no progress and called Tehran's demands unacceptable.
Last week's oil rout was built on the hope of a deal. On Sunday, November 8, the US official most involved in reaching one poured cold water on it: speaking before a meeting of G7 foreign ministers in France, Secretary of State Marco Rubio said "I have no progress to report", called Iran's demands unacceptable and some of them "outrageous, ridiculous, and detached from reality", and added: "I wouldn't say we're at the verge of a breakthrough."
The message from the White House was softer. President Donald Trump told CNN it was "highly unlikely" the US would need to resume military action if Iran signs a strong agreement on its nuclear programme and reopens the Strait of Hormuz. Qatar, the main mediator, denied reports that the talks had failed, and Iran has reportedly sent a nuclear proposal through Doha that is conditional on sanctions relief. Trump was due to meet Qatar's prime minister at noon Eastern time on Monday, Axios reported.
Crude split the difference. Futures fell at Sunday evening's open after Trump's remarks and climbed back to roughly unchanged after Rubio's, investingLive reported. Early on Monday Brent was down about 0.2% at $98.08 a barrel and West Texas Intermediate up 0.3% at $91.11. Brent settled at $98.32 on Friday after falling more than 16% in the week from $117.64, its steepest weekly drop since 2020.
The physical risks have not gone away. Reports of strikes around the Strait of Hormuz continued over the weekend, a suspected Iranian drone attack halted production at Iraq's Khor Mor gas field, and the Houthis claimed attacks on Saudi Aramco's tower in Riyadh and on Aramco storage facilities. US Central Command has also launched a task force aimed at Iran's economy. None of that moved prices much, a sign that traders now price the conflict through the diplomacy rather than through each incident.
That makes the next headlines from Doha and Washington more important than any inventory report. OPEC's monthly market report on Wednesday will show how much supply members are restoring, but with Brent still about $20 below last month's level, the risk is lopsided: a signed framework is largely priced, while a collapse of the talks is not.