Analysis
A Third of the S&P 500 Reports This Week. Before and After the Megacaps, Verizon, Boeing, Coca-Cola, Exxon and Chevron Test a 32% Earnings Season
About a third of S&P 500 companies report this week, the busiest of the season, with third-quarter earnings growth tracking above 32%, according to LSEG. Alphabet, Microsoft and Amazon get the attention, but Verizon opens on Monday, Boeing, Coca-Cola and UPS report on Tuesday, and Exxon and Chevron close on Friday with Brent above $110. The S&P 500 fell 0.47% last week.
The numbers going into the week are better than the mood. More than 100 S&P 500 companies had reported by Friday, and third-quarter earnings for the index were on pace to rise more than 32% from a year earlier, according to LSEG data cited by Reuters. The index has still lost ground: it fell 0.47% last week to 7,623.68, the Nasdaq Composite 0.71% and the Dow rose 0.41%, while the Russell 2000 of smaller companies gained about 2.0%, a split that says investors are rewarding companies far from the AI trade and punishing those in it. "The market's just not giving the benefit of the doubt to companies," Nick Giorgi of Alpine Macro told Reuters. About a third of the index reports in the next five days.
Monday is about telecoms. Verizon reports before the open, with consensus near $1.27 a share, after AT&T and T-Mobile fell almost 8% on Friday on a Bloomberg report that SpaceX is negotiating access to at least 80,000 US cell sites for a fourth carrier; Verizon, which lost only 1.19% to $44.66, has to show that the market was right to spare it. Nucor, Cadence Design and Welltower follow after the close.
Tuesday is the broadest day for the real economy. Coca-Cola, at $92.71 after a 2.8% fall on Friday, is expected to earn about 87 cents a share; Boeing, at $188.35, is expected to lose about 21 cents; UPS, at $101.06, is expected at $1.63; PayPal, Royal Caribbean, Sherwin-Williams, HCA and Freeport-McMoRan report the same morning, all estimates from the Nasdaq consensus compiled by StockTitan. Visa, Seagate and Robinhood follow after the close. These are the reports that say whether consumers are still spending through 4.7% inflation expectations and oil above $100, and whether the industrial strength in October's flash PMI is showing up in orders.
Wednesday and Thursday belong to the megacaps and the Fed. Alphabet ($2.94 expected) and Microsoft ($4.71) report after the close on Wednesday, hours after the Fed's decision, with T-Mobile, ServiceNow, KLA, Chipotle and Ford; Eli Lilly, Mastercard, Merck and Caterpillar report on Thursday morning, the same hour as the first estimate of third-quarter GDP and the September PCE price index, and Amazon ($2.01), Intel, Sandisk, Coinbase and Strategy report that evening.
Friday ends the week where Friday last week ended, with oil. Exxon Mobil, which rose 2.8% to $183.21 on October 23, is expected to earn $3.96 a share, and Chevron, up 2.9% to $233.21, $4.78, with Brent's December contract at $116.72, its highest close since April. Their results describe July to September; the market will be listening for what they say about the quarter that began on October 1. AbbVie, Colgate-Palmolive and General Dynamics report the same morning.