Markets
China's Exports Rose 35% and Its Surplus Topped $1 Trillion
China's exports rose 35.2% from a year earlier in October 2026, beating the 33.5% forecast. The year's trade surplus passed $1 trillion a month earlier than in 2025.
China's customs agency reported on Tuesday, November 10, that exports rose 35.2% in October from a year earlier in dollar terms, ahead of the 33.5% expected in a Reuters poll and only slightly slower than September's 36.3%. Imports grew even faster, by 41.6% against a forecast of 32%. In value, exports reached about $412.3 billion and imports $307.1 billion.
Because imports outpaced exports, the monthly surplus came in at about $105.3 billion: larger than the $88 billion of October 2025, but the smallest since April according to LSEG data and well short of the $125.8 billion forecast compiled by Trading Economics. The running total still crossed a symbolic line: the surplus for January to October reached about $1.04 trillion, the second year in a row above $1 trillion and a month earlier than in 2025.
The driver is the AI build-out. Shipments of chips, data-centre servers and networking equipment have surged for several months, and FedEx has added freighter capacity between China and the US for AI infrastructure and semiconductors, investingLive reported. Some of the jump is price rather than volume: a day earlier, China said factory-gate prices rose 5.7% in October, with data storage devices 45.4% more expensive than a year ago, which inflates the dollar value of the same number of boxes.
Imports carry their own signal. Crude oil purchases fell 13.3% from a year earlier in volume but were the highest since March. The bilateral surplus with the United States was about $33 billion, slightly below September's, while the surplus with the European Union reached $310.7 billion over ten months against $241.6 billion a year earlier.
That last figure is the one most likely to cause friction. The EU is pressing for more curbs on Chinese goods, Beijing has extended its trade truce with Washington by two months, and Xi Jinping and Donald Trump are expected to meet at next week's APEC summit in Shenzhen, their third meeting this year. Markets barely reacted, with the Shanghai Composite up 0.4% at 3,673.54, but each new record in the surplus makes trade a larger item on that agenda.