Markets
Gold's First Close Below $4,000 Since July Came From Oil
Gold ended Friday at about $3,996 an ounce, its first close below $4,000 since mid-July, after a 4.1% weekly fall, its worst since June. Higher oil has pushed markets to price a 78% chance of a December Fed hike, and a Treasury yield near 5% competes with a metal that pays nothing. Silver hit its lowest since November 2025.
Gold usually likes a war in the Gulf. This one has sent it the other way. Spot gold traded at $3,995.81 late on Friday, October 23, after touching $3,975.23, and December futures settled 1.3% lower at $4,007.90, according to Reuters and Kitco figures compiled by FinanceFeeds. It was the first close below $4,000 since mid-July and capped a weekly fall of about 4.1%, the worst since June. Silver fell 1% to $53.97, its lowest since November 2025, platinum to $1,555.84 and palladium to $1,048.31, both multi-month lows.
The link runs through interest rates. Brent's 6% weekly gain, to its highest close since April, pushed inflation expectations up and, with them, the odds that the Federal Reserve raises rates again. On Friday, CME FedWatch priced about a 92% chance of a hold on Wednesday and a 78% chance of a December increase, and in a Reuters poll taken from October 16 to 20, all 100 economists expected a December hike. The 10-year Treasury yield stood at 4.97% on Monday, according to the ABC. A metal that pays no interest looks less attractive when a government bond pays almost 5%, and that comparison has mattered more than the headlines from Saudi Arabia.
There was also forced selling. Jim Wyckoff of American Gold Exchange told Reuters that heightened inflation concerns meant major central banks would not be able to ease as quickly as they wanted, and that the sell-off in technology stocks had produced margin calls that led some investors to sell gold and silver to raise cash. That is a familiar pattern in a falling equity market: the assets that are easiest to sell, and still show a profit, are sold first, whatever their long-term case.
Monday began quietly. Spot gold was flat at $3,995.42 at 02:40 GMT, Investing.com reported, before buyers returned as oil eased; the ABC had it 0.5% higher at $4,017 by mid-afternoon in Sydney, and PAX Gold, a token backed by bullion that trades around the clock on Binance, climbed from a low of $3,994.17 in the 01:00 UTC hour to $4,029.95 by 05:00 UTC. Physical demand is giving some support: Reuters reported that lower prices lifted premiums in India during the Dussehra festival season.
The week will test whether $4,000 is a floor or just a round number. The Fed's statement on Wednesday at 2 p.m. Eastern, the third-quarter GDP estimate and September's PCE price index on Thursday, and oil's next move will all feed the same calculation about real yields. Kitco's technical levels put resistance near $4,075 and support at $3,963 and then $3,946. A Fed that sounds certain about December would press on the metal; one that sounds uncertain would remove the main reason it fell.