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Markets

Lam Research Posted a Record $8.22 Billion Quarter, Guided Above Consensus and Fell 6% After Hours. IBM Beat and Gave Back a 4% Gain: Two Ways to Lose on Good News

Lam Research reported fiscal first-quarter revenue of $8.22 billion on October 21, up 54% from a year earlier and 22% from the June quarter, with a record 52.4% gross margin, an operating margin above 40% for the first time and earnings of $2.20 a share. It guided the December quarter to $8.6 billion, above the $8.1 billion consensus, and said 2027 wafer-fab equipment spending will exceed $200 billion. The shares fell 6.3% to about $244 in extended trading. IBM earned $2.95 a share on $17.1 billion of revenue, both ahead, rose 3.94% in the session and fell 3.7% after the close.

Oct 22, 2026

The chip-equipment trade got the quarter it had hoped for and sold it anyway. Lam Research's revenue for the quarter to September was $8.22 billion, a fifth consecutive record, up 54% from a year earlier and 22% from the June quarter; gross margin was 52.4%, an all-time high, operating margin reached 40.2%, the first time above 40%, diluted earnings were $2.20 a share against $2.11 in the prior quarter and roughly $2.18 expected, and free cash flow was a record $3.24 billion. Memory tools were 46% of systems revenue, with NAND rising to 26% from 23% on upgrades to 256-layer devices, and foundry 46%; China was 35% of revenue, up from 26%, which management said would be meaningfully lower in the December quarter. For that quarter Lam guided revenue of $8.6 billion plus or minus $400 million, a 52.5% gross margin and earnings of $2.33 plus or minus 15 cents, and said the number would have been higher without near-term supply constraints that push some shipments into March. Chief executive Tim Archer said the industry is "in the early stages of a multi-year investment cycle," with preliminary 2027 wafer-fab equipment spending above $200 billion against a mid-$150 billion range this year, led by DRAM.

The stock, which had closed down 1.00% at $260.81 after trading as high as $270.90 in the morning, fell to about $244 in extended trading, a drop of 6.3%. The explanations on offer were the width of the guidance range, the supply constraints, and the fact that the shares had risen about 80% in a year and 53% in 2026 before the chip sell-off of the past two weeks took 17% off them; a beat-and-raise was the minimum the price required. Binance's tokenised SOXLB pair, which tracks the three-times leveraged semiconductor ETF around the clock, fell from $104.43 at the US close to $94.00 by 04:30 UTC, a 10% overnight decline, and by the Seoul close Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix, down 3.8% and 5.6%, had given back most of Wednesday's gains.

IBM's evening went the same way for different reasons. Revenue of $17.1 billion rose 5%, or 6% at constant currency, against $16.82 billion expected; software grew 8% to $7.8 billion, with the data business up 19%, Red Hat up 11% and transaction processing up 9%, while automation fell 3%; consulting was flat at $5.3 billion and infrastructure rose 4% to $3.7 billion, with the mainframe down 20% and distributed infrastructure up 31%. Operating earnings of $2.95 a share beat the $2.86 consensus, free cash flow was $3.0 billion, and the company kept its 4% to 5% constant-currency growth outlook and raised its free-cash-flow guidance to an increase of more than $1 billion. The shares had risen 3.94% to $251.46 in the session, a record, and fell 3.7% to about $242 after the close; the thin IBMB token on Binance printed $271.08 within fifteen minutes of the release and $238.14 two hours later, a 12% round trip on a beat.

Both stocks ran into the same wall, which is positioning. Lam's guidance was above consensus by about $500 million, and the stock still fell because the options market and the week's buying had priced more; IBM's software acceleration was real, and the stock fell because it had risen 8% in three sessions into the print. Neither report changes the industrial facts, which are that memory makers are ordering tools faster than Lam can ship them and that IBM's software business is growing. What changed is the price at which those facts are held. Meta's 26% revenue growth, reported the same hour, said the buyers of AI capacity are fine; Lam's reaction said the sellers of it are now priced for perfection, and the Kospi's 3.7% fall on Thursday said Korea agrees.