Analysis
Moderna Swung to a Profit and Raised Its 2026 Sales Outlook
Moderna reported third-quarter net income of $162 million and revenue up 29% to $1.31 billion on Friday, and raised its 2026 revenue growth forecast to 15% to 25%.
Analysts expected Moderna to lose money in the third quarter; it made $162 million. The vaccine maker reported on Friday, November 6, revenue of $1.313 billion, up 29% from $1.016 billion a year earlier and far above the $885.1 million consensus compiled by LSEG, and earnings of 38 cents a share against an expected loss of $1.25. A year earlier it had lost $200 million. The shares rose 5.3% to $254.19, close to their 52-week high, and have risen more than 700% this year, according to CNBC.
Most of the surprise came from outside the United States. US revenue was $780 million and international revenue $533 million, as COVID vaccine sales under long-term government partnerships ran ahead of forecasts. "The new product and the diversification of geography is what has led to such a strong Q3," chief executive Stéphane Bancel told CNBC. Costs helped as much as sales: research and development spending fell 27% to $583 million, while selling and administrative costs rose 5% to $282 million. "It's the sales that are stronger and the costs that are also lower," Bancel said.
The outlook moved accordingly. Moderna now expects 2026 revenue to grow 15% to 25%, against up to 10% before, split roughly evenly between the US and international markets. It cut its research budget for the year to about $2.7 billion from about $2.9 billion and raised its year-end cash and investments forecast to $8.1 billion to $8.3 billion, from $4.7 billion to $5.2 billion; cash stood at $8.0 billion at the end of September, up from $6.9 billion in June. Cost of sales for the year includes a $0.9 billion one-off litigation settlement charge.
The pipeline news was mixed. The FDA approved the company's seasonal flu vaccine, mFLUSIVA, in August, but the US launch this season will be limited, and the flu-and-COVID combination shot approved in Canada and the EU is still waiting for FDA guidance on a new filing. A Phase 3 interim analysis of the norovirus vaccine did not meet the criteria for early success. The cancer vaccine intismeran, developed with Merck, cut the risk of recurrence or death by 42% when added to Keytruda in high-risk melanoma, and the two companies are preparing regulatory submissions.
That last programme is what most of this year's 700% rally is built on, which makes the quarter useful mainly as evidence on cash. A profit driven by a few government contracts can be lumpy, and a 10-point-wide revenue range shows how uncertain the fourth quarter still is. What changed on Friday is the runway: with about $8 billion in the bank and research spending falling, Moderna can fund the melanoma filings and the next intismeran readouts without asking shareholders for money.