Markets
The 10-Year Treasury Yield Is a Hair From 5% — and a Rate Hike Now Looks Like the Base Case
A hotter-than-expected inflation reading pushed hike odds from around 70% to roughly 90% in a single data release, and Treasury yields followed the news to levels last seen in 2007.
The 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.96%, its highest level since 2023 and closing in on levels last seen in 2007. The 2-year note finished at 4.63%, keeping the curve's shape in focus alongside the outright level.
The immediate catalyst was inflation data: core CPI rose 0.3% month-over-month, hotter than the 0.2% economists had forecast, even as the annual core rate slipped to a multi-year low. Markets read the monthly number as the more urgent signal, pushing the odds of a rate hike at the next Fed meeting from roughly 70% to close to 90% in the space of one release.
A separate, less-discussed factor added further pressure: a weaker-than-expected US Treasury buyback operation, a reminder that yields respond to auction demand and debt-issuance mechanics as much as to inflation prints alone.
A single data point moving a scheduled decision's odds by roughly 20 percentage points in one session is precisely the kind of scheduled, binary-shaped event Fast Binary is built to let you study on a short window, rather than trying to hold a position through the entire run-up.