Analysis
The Week Ahead: Six Companies Worth More Than $200 Billion Report on Wednesday, the Fed Is Silent, and Flash PMIs Close It Out
Meta, Tesla, IBM, Texas Instruments, Lam Research and SAP all report after the close on October 21. Netflix and SpaceX go first on Tuesday, Procter & Gamble on Thursday and American Express on Friday. Housing starts, jobless claims and the October flash PMIs fill the data calendar while the Fed observes its pre-meeting blackout.
There are no Fed speakers this week, no inflation reports and no jobs data; the blackout before the October 28 decision runs through every trading day. What the week has instead is earnings, and Wednesday evening is the busiest hour of the season so far. Six companies each valued above $200 billion report after the close on October 21: Meta Platforms (consensus about $6.76 a share on $63.3 billion of revenue), Tesla ($0.45), IBM ($2.87), Texas Instruments ($2.39), Lam Research ($2.17) and SAP ($2.03). Meta enters the week at $709.33 after three straight losses; Tesla at $354.72 after losing 7.31% last week.
Monday is quiet: the NAHB housing market index at 10:00 a.m. ET, expected at 31 after 32 in September, and regional banks Fifth Third and Zions. Tuesday opens with industrials before the bell, GE Aerospace ($2.01 expected), General Motors ($3.52), RTX ($1.76), 3M and Northrop Grumman ($7.22), and with September housing starts at 8:30 a.m. (consensus 1.30 million after 1.275 million) and pending home sales at 10:00. After the close, Netflix ($0.82 against $0.59 a year ago; the stock closed Friday at $70.53) and SpaceX, in its first full quarter as a listed company, report within half an hour of each other.
Wednesday morning belongs to healthcare and telecoms: Thermo Fisher, Abbott, AT&T, Philip Morris and NextEra, then the Treasury's $13 billion 20-year bond auction at 1:00 p.m. Thursday brings Procter & Gamble before the open ($1.89 expected; the stock closed Friday at $159.35, a three-month high, after gaining 5.37% last week as investors moved into staples), Union Pacific, Lockheed Martin ($7.48), Blackstone, Comcast and Honeywell, with weekly jobless claims at 8:30 a.m. (200,000 expected after 199,000), the Conference Board's leading index and the Kansas City Fed survey at 10:00 and 11:00. Western Digital and Newmont report after Thursday's close.
Friday is American Express ($4.47) and SLB before the open, then the week's most important data: S&P Global's flash PMIs for October at 9:45 a.m. ET, after September finals of 55.9 for manufacturing and 58.8 for services and a composite of 58.4 on the flash. The final October University of Michigan sentiment reading follows at 10:00, with the preliminary at 46.3 and the inflation-expectations lines the Fed reads most closely.
Positioning is the backdrop. The Nasdaq lost 4.48% last week, the chip index 11.41%, the VIX closed at 19.99, and the CME FedWatch tool puts the chance of a hike on October 28 at 17% and of one by December at 89%. Netflix, Tesla and Meta have each fallen into their reports; the semiconductor names reporting on Wednesday have fallen further. The week will not settle the question of whether AI spending pays, but it will show whether the companies doing the spending still intend to.