Historical replay · EUR/USD
The Euro's CPI Drop to a One-Year Low, and the Recovery (October 2026)
When US inflation came in hot on October 14, 2026, EUR/USD fell from 1.1209 to 1.1124 within three hours, near a one-year low. Two days later it was at 1.128. Replay the round trip in hourly candles.
The euro started the week of October 12, 2026 under pressure: the dollar index closed that Monday at 102.58, its highest in a year, and EUR/USD was near 1.117, its lowest in twelve months. On Binance's EUR/USDT pair, a close proxy for EUR/USD, the price recovered to about 1.121 by the morning of October 14.
The September CPI report landed at 12:30 UTC that day, with inflation at 3.7% and the core measure hotter than forecast. The 12:00 UTC candle fell from 1.1209 to 1.1142 on $2.2 million of volume, five times the previous hour, and the selling continued to a low of 1.1124 by 15:00 UTC.
The recovery began the same evening. EUR/USDT closed October 14 at 1.1205, almost where it started, and on October 15 — when weak underlying retail sales sent Treasury yields to their lowest since September 22 — it traded up to 1.1249. By 08:00 UTC on October 16 it reached 1.128, the highest in about two weeks.
For a currency pair, a 0.75% move in three hours is large, and its full reversal within a day is a reminder of how quickly forex markets price and then re-price a data surprise. The replay shows the first reaction; the following sessions show what the market decided it meant.