Historical replay · EUR/USD
The Euro's Midterm Rally to 1.1275 (November 2026)
The euro rose 0.7% against the dollar on Binance's EUR/USDT pair overnight on November 3–4, 2026, from 1.1199 to 1.1275, as Democrats were projected to win Congress and Treasury yields fell. Replay a currency pricing an election.
Binance's EUR/USDT pair, which tracks the euro against a dollar stablecoin, spent the US afternoon on Election Day almost motionless: from 16:00 UTC it never left a band between 1.1200 and 1.1212. With US markets closed and results not yet in, the 22:00 UTC hour traded in a range of five pips.
The first move came as polls closed. The 23:30 and 23:45 UTC candles lifted the euro to 1.1221 on $1.56 million of combined volume, the largest quarter-hour of the replay at $1.16 million, as early returns favoured Democrats. The pair added another step in the 00:15 candle, to 1.1235.
The steepest climb came between 01:00 and 01:45 UTC: 1.1250, 1.1261, then 1.1273, with a high of 1.1275, 0.7% above the evening low. The channel was interest rates: as projections pointed to a Democratic Congress and stock futures fell, the 10-year Treasury yield dropped about six basis points to 4.91%, making dollar assets less rewarding to hold. The dollar index fell 0.3%, according to Fox Business.
The euro held most of the gain. It tested 1.1275 again in the 04:30 UTC candle, then eased to around 1.1250 as stock futures recovered, still about 0.45% above where the night began. The replay shows how a political shock reaches a currency through interest rates: the euro did not rise on news about Europe, but because the market lowered its expectations for US yields.