Historical replay · PAXG/USD
Gold Lost $4,000 and Tested $3,890 (October 2026)
Tokenised gold (PAXG) fell from $4,003 to $3,890 on October 30, 2026, after closing ten hours in a row lower, as traders priced a December Fed hike. It reached $3,890–$3,891 in three straight hours and held just above a level analysts had flagged. Replay a slow break of a round number.
PAX Gold, the Paxos token backed by one troy ounce of gold, went into Thursday, October 29, a little above $4,000. The US data at 12:30 UTC were firm, with third-quarter GDP growth of 3.4% and September's PCE price index up 0.5% on the month and 3.6% on the year, yet the token barely reacted: the 12:00 and 13:00 UTC hours stayed between $4,024.10 and $4,040.63, and the replay's high, $4,040.75, came in the 14:00 hour. It drifted to $4,013.68 by 17:00, recovered to $4,027.28 at 19:00 and ended the UTC day 1.00% lower at $4,014.37.
The level gave way in Asia. Between 00:00 and 05:00 UTC on Friday the token traded from $3,997.55 to $4,022.17, dipping below $4,000 for the first time in the 03:00 hour, and the 06:00 hour was the first to close under it, at $3,993.52; the 07:00 hour reached $3,975.51. Europe then pushed it back: the 08:00 hour rose 0.51% to $4,003.20, the last hourly close above $4,000 in the replay. Behind the pressure was the rate outlook. The Fed had held at 3.75% to 4.00% on Wednesday without ruling out another increase, CME FedWatch put the chance of a December hike at about 75%, and Brent was above $110 after a tanker was hit by a limpet mine in the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday.
From 09:00 to 18:00 UTC every hour closed lower than it opened, ten in a row: $3,997.26, $3,986.91, $3,973.10 and $3,962.82 by midday, then the steepest hour of the replay as US traders arrived, 13:00 UTC, down 0.76% to $3,932.72 on $3.10 million, the busiest hour of the window. The 14:00 hour touched $3,905.09 and the 18:00 hour $3,890.00. None of those hours fell more than 0.76%, yet together they took 2.7% off the price. Silver fell more than 5%, below $50, and gold kept falling while the Nasdaq lost 2.86%, so it offered no shelter from the stock sell-off. "This week's U.S. macroeconomic data contained enough strong signals to keep a December Fed rate hike on the table," said Tim Waterer of KCM Trade.
The floor was tested three times. The token printed $3,890.00 in the 18:00 and 19:00 UTC hours and $3,890.60 in the 20:00 hour, a few dollars above the $3,886 support that Suki Cooper of Standard Chartered said gold needed to hold, and it ended the replay at $3,901.48, 3.08% below Thursday's open. PAXG traded $28.2 million over the UTC day of October 30, more than two and a half times the day before; December gold futures were quoted at $3,898.90, down 3.29%, with gold about 30% below its January record and on course for a second monthly loss. For an asset that pays no interest, a market moving towards higher rates is a direct cost, and on this day it outweighed the demand for safety; whether $3,886 holds is now the line traders watch.