Historical replay · PAXG/USD
Tokenised Gold Slid From $4,146 to $4,002 in 28 Hours Without a Single 1% Candle as Brent Crossed $111 (October 2026)
PAXG, the token backed by one troy ounce of gold, peaked at $4,145.59 at 22:00 UTC on October 21, 2026 and printed $4,002 at 02:00 UTC on October 23, a fall of 3.5%. Not one of the 142 quarter-hours in the replay moved more than 0.54%. The cause was oil: Brent rose 2.78% to $111.85 on October 22 on attacks on Gulf shipping, which revived expectations that the Fed would keep rates high and pushed spot gold down 2.27% and silver 4.51%. The heaviest candle came last, $2.02 million into $4,006, and was bought within fifteen minutes. Replay a safe-haven asset falling on a day of geopolitical risk, one small step at a time.
PAX Gold is a token in which each unit is backed by one fine troy ounce of gold held in custody by its issuer, Paxos, so its price follows spot gold around the clock, including the hours when the futures market is thin. Gold had already been soft in October: by October 22 it was down 3.3% for the month and silver 10%, according to Business Today. On October 21 the token traded between $4,112.94 and $4,148.50, and the 22:00 UTC candle printed $4,145.59, the high of this replay.
The reason gold fell is the reason it is usually expected to rise. On October 22 Brent crude rose 2.78% to $111.85 and WTI 1.70% to $98.80, after attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, reported damage to tankers and renewed Houthi attacks on Saudi infrastructure; the State Department ordered non-emergency staff to leave Saudi Arabia, and a New York Times report described drafted US and Israeli plans for renewed strikes on Iran. In 2026 the market read that as inflation first: with recent US consumer and producer price readings hotter than expected, higher oil meant higher-for-longer rates, the Fed was expected to hold at its October 27 to 28 meeting with a December hike still a concern, and a metal that pays no interest became less attractive. By the Indian evening spot gold was down 2.27% at $4,047.39, silver 4.51% at $55.105 and copper 2.76%.
The token did it in steps. The 03:00 UTC hour fell 0.51% to $4,099.32 on $1.88 million, its first close below $4,100, and CNBC reported spot gold at $4,094.90 at 03:33 GMT, its lowest since October 14. The European morning added the 11:15 candle, $1.68 million down to $4,074.94; the 12:00 to 12:45 candles bounced 0.6% to $4,096.34; New York sold it again, to $4,059.11 in the 14:00 candle, $4,048 in the 16:45 candle on 1,620 trades and $4,033.54 in the 19:00 hour, and the day closed at $4,036.10, down 2.22%. The Asian session on October 23 delivered the last step: the 01:45 candle fell 0.45% to $4,006.11 on $2.02 million and 3,253 trades, the heaviest quarter-hour of the replay, and the 02:00 candle touched $4,002 before closing 0.53% higher at $4,027.45. The token was at $4,029 by 05:00 UTC.
The number to remember is 0.54%, the largest single-candle move in 142 candles, against a total decline of 3.5%. There was no panic candle, no gap and no moment a stop-loss would have been skipped; there was a market re-pricing an interest-rate path, one quarter-hour at a time, while the headlines said war. The $4,000 level held by two dollars, on the highest volume of the two days, and was bought inside fifteen minutes. Whether it is support is a question for the Fed meeting the following week, not for this chart.