Historical replay · USD/MXN
The Peso's Seventh Losing Week: USD/MXN Rose 3.1% to 18.82, Then Gave Back Half (October 2026)
Between October 20 and 22, 2026, the dollar rose 3.1% against the Mexican peso on Binance's USDT/MXN pair, from 18.25 to 18.823, as the peso headed for its seventh straight weekly loss. Most of the climb came on one day, October 21. By Monday, October 26, the pair had given back about half. Replay a week of a currency carry trade under strain, hour by hour.
The Mexican peso spent most of 2026 as one of the steadier emerging-market currencies, and in late September its slide began: the dollar rose from 17.21 pesos on September 22 to 18.30 on October 1, a move covered in an earlier replay. It never really recovered. Binance's USDT/MXN pair, which tracks the dollar-peso rate through a dollar stablecoin, opened this replay at 18.49 on Monday, October 19, and the first part of the week looked like a pause: the pair fell 0.60% in the 23:00 UTC hour to 18.30 and touched 18.25 on the afternoon of October 20, its lowest in the replay. Banxico's FIX reference rate for October 20 was 18.4253.
October 21 was the day the peso broke. The pair rose 1.52% over the UTC day, its largest daily gain of the replay, in steps spread across the European and American trading day: +0.46% in the 12:00 UTC hour to 18.571, +0.30% at 15:00 to 18.641, and +0.58% at 19:00, the busiest hour of the week at $4.18 million, which took the pair back to 18.64 after a dip. The climb continued overnight, through the Asian and European mornings, to a high of 18.823 in the 11:00 UTC hour on October 22, 3.1% above the low two days earlier; the interbank market's high that day was about 18.85. Banxico's FIX published for Friday, October 23, was 18.7005.
Mexican outlets reading the move pointed to familiar pressures. Citing Investing.com, ViveUSA listed the gap between Mexican and US interest rates, the possibility that the Federal Reserve raises rates again, a weaker Mexican economy and a higher risk premium than in other Latin American markets, and noted that the peso was on course for a seventh consecutive weekly loss. The global backdrop fitted: oil was above $110, the 10-year Treasury yield sat near 5%, and futures priced a December Fed hike as likely, the conditions that make investors less willing to hold a high-yielding currency that has already lost ground for weeks.
The second half of the chart is the retracement. The 12:00 UTC hour on October 22 fell 0.43%, and the pair spent Thursday and Friday between 18.62 and 18.76, ending Friday near 18.65. On Monday, October 26, it slid 0.80% to 18.55 after a low of 18.501, giving back about half of the climb. The lesson is about the shape of a slow currency slide: weeks of small, steady losses, then one day that does most of the damage, then a partial recovery that can look like a turn without proving one. The Fed decides on Wednesday, October 28, and that is the next test of whether the seventh losing week was the last.