Signals · theoretical, educational setups
Berkshire, Ether, CoreWeave and Brent Before CPI Week
Four theoretical setups for the week of November 9: Berkshire after doubling its buybacks, ether after six weeks of ETF outflows, CoreWeave before results and Brent after a 16% weekly drop.
BRK-B · Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (Class B) — Bullish, Swing (1-4 weeks). Berkshire bought back about $9.6 billion of its own stock in the third quarter, double the second quarter, which signals that management still sees the shares below intrinsic value after a 13% gain this year. The Class B shares closed Friday at $570.89, holding most of the jump that followed the midterms while technology stocks fell, and the stock has behaved as a defensive holding during the AI sell-off. The risk is the 43% fall in insurance underwriting profit, which could weigh if GEICO's losses keep rising. A daily close below $556.11, the November 2 close before the post-election move, would invalidate the setup.
ETH/USD · Ethereum — Bearish, Short-term (days). Ether gave back its whole post-election rally in a day: it touched $2,450 on November 4, fell to $2,206.28 late on November 5 and has spent the weekend near $2,235 on Binance. Ether ETFs had their sixth straight weekly outflow, $365.3 million, and are now negative for 2026, while December Fed hike odds near 77% to 80% weigh on assets without yield ahead of Tuesday's CPI report. Rebounds have stalled below $2,260 for three days. A daily close above $2,330 would invalidate the setup.
CRWV · CoreWeave, Inc. — Neutral, Short-term (days). CoreWeave reports after the close on Tuesday, November 10, after losing about 16% last week and about half its value in a month to close Friday at $46.40. A backlog of about $104 billion at the end of June argues for demand; bond yields above 15% and credit-default swaps above 1,000 basis points argue that funding, not demand, is the constraint. With an earnings gap of 15% or more in either direction plausible, a directional call before the report is a coin toss, so no position: the reaction to the funding update matters more than the quarter's numbers.
BRENT · Brent Crude Oil — Neutral, Short-term (days). Brent fell more than 16% last week to $98.32, its steepest weekly drop since 2020, on bets that Qatari mediation will produce a US-Iran deal, but no framework exists, tanker attacks continue and Hormuz flows are still below 60% of capacity. Rapidan Energy Group puts the chance of renewed fighting at 80%. With Friday's range between $96.65 and $100.92 and the EIA outlook on Tuesday and OPEC's report on Wednesday, a break below $93.40 or above $101 says more than any view inside that range, so no directional call.