Signals · theoretical, educational setups
Hot CPI Hits Gold, Nvidia Nears Its Low, Bitcoin Tests Support
Four theoretical setups for November 11 after a hotter October CPI: Nvidia near its 52-week low, gold back below $4,060, bitcoin at its 200-day average and Brent at $91.
NVDA · NVIDIA Corporation — Bearish, Short-term (days). Nvidia fell another 5.47% on Tuesday to $168.89, its second heavy loss in two sessions and only about 2% above its 52-week low of $165.17 from March 30. It is now 29% below its October 6 peak and trades far under its 50-day average near $218. The board's outside investigation into the chief executive has no timetable, and the hot CPI print added rate pressure on the whole growth complex, so bounces before the November 17 results are likely to meet sellers. A daily close above $179, back above Monday's $178.67 close, would invalidate the setup.
XAU/USD · Gold — Bearish, Short-term (days). Gold futures fell 2.05% on Tuesday to $4,030.20, cancelling the breakout above $4,115 and closing below the $4,060 level we flagged as the line that would undo it. October core CPI at 0.3% against 0.2% expected pushed the 10-year yield to 4.98% and the dollar index up 0.57%, and with a December hike now fully priced the metal loses its rate-cut support. The next marker below is the November 4 area near $3,940. A daily close above $4,120, back over Monday's close, would invalidate the setup.
BTC/USD · Bitcoin — Bearish, Short-term (days). Bitcoin closed Tuesday at about $73,796, down 2.09%, sitting right on its 200-day average near $73,190 and well below its 50-day average around $81,450. It has made lower highs since the $81,000 area on November 4 and failed to join Monday's equity rebound, and higher short-term Treasury yields make the case for holding a non-yielding asset weaker. A clean daily close below the 200-day average would open the way to the low $70,000s. A daily close above $78,000 would invalidate the setup.
BRENT · Brent Crude Oil — Neutral, Short-term (days). Brent settled at $91.49 on Tuesday, down 1.17% after Monday's 5.85% slide, and bounced about 1% to near $92.40 early on Wednesday on reports of new attacks on Gulf shipping. The bearish setup from yesterday is intact, but the market is now trapped between peace headlines and real incidents, with US gasoline already below $4 and OPEC's monthly report due. No new position: a daily close below $89 would extend the slide, while one above $95 would signal that the war premium is coming back.