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Elections and markets

National elections, runoffs and midterms, and how currencies, stocks and bonds price the outcome before and after the count.

Markets do not wait for an election result: they price the probabilities weeks in advance, from polls, first-round results and betting markets, and the currency is usually the first asset to move. That is why the biggest reactions often come when the result differs from what was priced, not when one side wins.

Our coverage follows the pricing before a vote, the overnight moves in the markets that trade while the count is running, and the first sessions afterwards, when local investors decide how much of the initial reaction to keep.